Bangladesh Unrest- Indias’ Security And Foreign Policy Dilemma

Bangladesh is on edge gripped by state and fundamentalist sponsored unrest since dethroning of Sheikh Hasina and installation of interim administration of Muhammad Yunus. Current unrest in Bangladesh is laced with heavy cocktail of anti-Indianism. This situation was avoidable, had India been correct in its foreign policy assessment of simmering discontent against Sheikh Hasina and not lent legitimacy to 2018 and 2024 elections, which were termed not free and fair by US state department and other international observers. Sheikh Hasina’s democratic aberrations in 2024 elections, student mass protests to force her to resign, were overlooked by Indias foreign policy establishment. Mass protests, forced her to heed Army’s nudge to resign in bargain for safe passage into India. India placed all eggs in one basket, ignoring other political stakeholder, leaving limited space for engagement with future establishment, since future political establishment in power is likely to be beset with anti-Indianism as current trends indicate. Had India nudged Sheikh Hasina to take all stake holders in confidence for conduct of free and fair elections, could have avoided diplomatic and security dilemma it faces today, wherein peaceful and reliable eastern neighbor have turned rogue and disruptive affecting safety of minorities a highly emotive issue, also affecting external and internal security. It was this tunnel vision which have led to current Indian isolation in Bangladesh and anti-minority rhetoric.

There are three main stakeholders in current political landscape in Bangladesh, likely to pull strings of power, India need to harness. They are Bangladesh Nationalist party led by Acting chairman Tarique Rahman, National Citizens Party (NCP), and Pro-Pakistan jamaat-e-Islami (JeM). India needs to engage with all of them in the interest of peace and stability in the region. This engagement is must to address civil unrest, security of minorities, infiltration, militancy, radicalization and illegal migration into North East and stability of Siliguri corridor. India needs to realize that North East is separated from India by Bangladesh except for very narrow Siliguri corridor. Stabilized and peaceful and developing Bangladesh is win-win situation for India to access land trade and transit facilities providing supply stability to Northeast. Imminent need for India to engage with all political stakeholders, not repeat mistake of placing all eggs in one basket and face unresolvable diplomatic and security dilemmas.

What are Indias diplomatic and security dilemmas, it must address to improve relations with Bangladesh. The first is to address aggressive narrative for handing over Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh for facing trial. It is being used as tool to stoke anti-India and anti-minority feelings. These are geopolitical disruptions to fuel instability in North East with new found ally Pakistan ISI. India needs to wait and watch for new government to take reigns of power to address these issues since their unresolvable status affects Indias clout as regional player, affects border security, makes difficult to counter extremist narratives.

India needs to address Bangladesh dilemma at two levels of diplomacy and security. Diplomacy must involve aggressive engagement with Bangladesh and security must address porosity, deployment and operational handling of Indo-Bangladesh border. Border security must address vulnerabilities of Indo-Bangladesh border involving large temporarily manned riverine stretches, unfenced feasible and non-feasible gaps, population ahead of fence which makes Indo-Bangladesh border one of the most hostile and difficult borders being managed through tactically unviable non-lethal strategy. Security also must have plan to address Pakistan and Chinese attempts to raise Bangladesh as third front in case of conventional conflict which must involve preparing Border Security Force to handle Bangladesh front in case of conventional conflict.

Interim administrations improved relations with Pakistan, military cooperation, ISI footprints, relaxation in visa requirement for Pakistani citizens and resumption of flights has threatened Indias security and strategic depth in South Asia and Bay of Bengal with Bangladesh shift towards China -Pakistan axis.

India security and foreign policy establishment needs to appreciate that India must engage in aggressive diplomacy to address Bangladesh concerns and assure it of consistent and unhindered political and economic support for peace, stability and development. This way it will be able to arrest Bangladesh tilt towards Pakistan and China. As confidence building measure it should restore transshipment services to Bangladesh for its export products via India.

Tarique Rahman seen as future Prime Minister immediately on return from exile while addressing people said that Bangladesh belongs to people of all faiths including Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and Christians. This sentiment must be exploited by India for stability in relations with Bangladesh and strengthening border security. India needs to realize that security stakes for India in the region all along Indo-Bangladeshi, Indo-Nepal and Indo-Bhutan and Indo-China border are very high with Siliguri corridor locked within this quadrilateral which is only land link of main land to eight sisters. This vulnerability is further compounded with Chinese logistic and infrastructural presence in Bangladesh and its rebuilding of Lalmonirhat airbase in North Bangladesh close to Siliguri corridor. Group of two as President Trump described USA and China along with common partner Pakistan is trying to dominate Bangladesh to reduce Indian dominance in the region and may be using current unrest to create an anti-India narrative which India needs to be careful. It must not rush into hurried security misstep which further isolates Bangladesh into Pakistan and Chinese lap.

India must appreciate that stable and peaceful Bangladesh is must for peace, prosperity and stability in north East. It not only provides cushion and protection to India’s north East, its role as player in North East development becomes primary through land trade facilities through Bangladesh. It also becomes facilitator in Indias act east policy. India must be careful, cautious as stable Bangladesh brings prosperity and hostile Bangladesh becomes a launch pad to create another wave of unrest in North East and becomes a facilitator in big game of powerplay to diminish and dilute Indian dominance in the region. Caution and patience must be mantra for Indian diplomacy and security establishment without lowering guard on diplomatic and security front.

Rattan Chand Sharma

Rattan Chand Sharma retired from the Border Security Force as a Commandant. A regular contributor to publications like Outlook, Deccan Herald, India Sentinels, Force Magazine, Chanakya Forum, Saveratimes, Seema Sanghosh, he writes mainly about defence and security personnel issues.