When Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate Haji Mohammad Rizwan claimed, “If SP puts a collar on a dog here, it will also win,” little did he know that this overconfidence would lead to a dramatic loss for his party. In a historic and unexpected outcome, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured the Kundarki assembly seat in Moradabad district of western Uttar Pradesh by a record margin of 1,43,465 votes—a feat achieved after 31 years in a constituency with over 60% Muslim voters.
This victory was no accident. It was a carefully orchestrated campaign that capitalized on SP’s complacency, internal divisions within the Muslim vote, and BJP’s relentless ground-level efforts.
The Demographics of Kundarki
Kundarki is a unique political battleground with its demography posing a formidable challenge for the BJP. Of the 3.83 lakh voters, 1.50 lakh are Hindus, while 2.30 lakh are Muslims. Among the Muslim electorate, Turks form the largest group (80,000), followed by Sheikhzadas (60,000), Pathans (10,000), Qureshis (10,000), and other smaller Muslim sub-communities (60,000).
Historically, the seat had been dominated by Turk candidates. From 1996 to 2022, SP and BSP alternated victories here, with BSP’s Akbar Hussain and SP’s Rizwan establishing a stranglehold over the seat. The last BJP victory dated back to 1993 when Chandra Vijay Singh alias Baby Raja triumphed. Since then, the BJP had been an afterthought in Kundarki, until now.
SP’s Overconfidence and Strategic Missteps
The SP’s downfall began with its misjudgment of voter sentiment. Rizwan, who had previously contested and lost on a BSP ticket in 2022, returned to SP, assuming an easy victory based on past performance. His infamous statement about winning even with a dog as a candidate reflected the hubris that alienated not only Hindu voters but also segments of the Muslim electorate.
Further compounding the problem was SP’s internal disarray. Prominent leaders like Akhilesh Yadav, Ruchi Veera, and Ziaur Rahman Barq offered lukewarm support during the campaign, appearing only at high-profile rallies but failing to engage meaningfully with the grassroots. Rizwan, isolated and over-reliant on historical voting patterns, underestimated BJP’s strategic outreach.
BJP’s Winning Formula
In sharp contrast, BJP’s Thakur Ramveer Singh ran a meticulous, multi-pronged campaign that resonated across demographic lines. The BJP focused on three key strategies: addressing neglected Muslim sub-groups, leveraging development narratives, and projecting itself as an inclusive, pro-governance alternative.
- Wooing Neglected Muslim Sub-Groups
While Turks dominated Kundarki’s political narrative, other Muslim groups like the Sheikhzadas and Qureshis had felt marginalized. BJP highlighted SP’s favoritism towards Turks and positioned itself as a more inclusive option. Singh’s campaign directly engaged Sheikhzada leaders, addressing their concerns and showcasing a future of equitable representation. This outreach bore fruit as a significant chunk of Sheikhzada voters shifted allegiance to BJP.
Adding to SP’s woes, a boycott by 10,000 Qureshi voters further eroded its traditional Muslim vote bank. This boycott stemmed from anger against Rizwan’s son, Kallan, whose alleged high-handedness alienated local communities.
2. Development as a Message
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s direct involvement proved pivotal. Weeks before the elections, Yogi inaugurated development projects worth over ?200 crore in Kundarki, signaling BJP’s commitment to transforming the constituency. His campaign message—“Diwali was celebrated with joy; Eid will also be celebrated with pomp”—offered a narrative of religious inclusivity while retaining BJP’s developmental plank. This balanced messaging resonated with voters looking for tangible progress.
3. Mobilizing Hindu Voters
For BJP, the 1.50 lakh Hindu voters in Kundarki formed a critical base. Singh’s campaign galvanized this bloc, uniting diverse Hindu castes under the banner of development and security. The BJP’s disciplined ground network ensured a strong turnout among Hindu voters, compensating for its traditionally weaker performance among Muslims.
The Ilma Afroz Factor
Another twist in the narrative was BJP’s use of IPS officer Ilma Afroz’s story to connect with Muslim voters. Afroz, a local from Kundarki, had risen through sheer grit but faced professional hurdles in Congress-ruled Himachal Pradesh. BJP portrayed her challenges as emblematic of SP-Congress neglect towards Muslims with merit and integrity. This narrative struck a chord, particularly with younger Muslim voters seeking representation and fairness.
The Result: A Historic Upset for some, victory for Safron house
By the time the votes were counted, SP’s overconfidence had cost them dearly. BJP’s Ramveer Singh achieved what seemed impossible in a seat long considered a bastion of SP-BSP dominance. Not only did Singh win, but Rizwan also failed to save his deposit, a clear reflection of the voter’s rejection of complacency and arrogance.
Interestingly, BJP’s margin in Kundarki (1,43,465 votes) dwarfed the 57,044-vote margin it had lost by in the 2022 Lok Sabha elections when SP’s Ziaur Rahman Barq won. This drastic turnaround underscores the effectiveness of BJP’s strategy.
Lessons from Kundarki
The Kundarki election is a microcosm of the larger shifts in Indian politics. It highlights how overconfidence and complacency can undo decades of dominance, while perseverance, meticulous strategy, and grassroots connection can achieve the seemingly impossible.
For BJP, the victory is a testament to its adaptability and commitment to redefining its image in Muslim-dominated areas. For SP, it is a wake-up call to introspect, recalibrate, and address the growing disillusionment within its core vote bank.
As the lotus blooms again in Kundarki after 31 years, the message is clear: politics rewards effort, not entitlement.
Saurabh Chauhan, an independent journalist, has over 15 years of experience in Print and Digital Media. He has extensively written on a variety of issues including women’s rights, environment, crime, governance, finance and politics at Shimla, Chandigarh and Lucknow. Saurabh currently divides his time between Shimla and his native place in Kotgarh (Shimla Hills).
